RegMed Daily Dialogue, 8/3/11, the loosing streak continues for equities
The 6 W’s: Who, what, where, when, why and what of it…
The market reaction after the just-ended battle over hiking the debt ceiling means: the government avoided default, but also rattled (I say screwed) investors, with 2 of the 3 benchmark indexes poised for their longest losing stretch since 10/08.
This debate has left a cloud of uncertainty over the market in terms of what it means. The good news is we did not default; the bad news is we don’t know what is coming out … next … of/from Washington.
Stock futures rose Wednesday, 8/3/11 after companies added 114K workers to payrolls in July, giving investors better-than-expected economic news. With the Dow looking to rebound after the longest losing streak in nearly 3 years, stock-index futures added a bit to gains after the ADP report.
The NASDAQ turned negative for the year, Wednesday as stocks waded deeper into the red after a round of lackluster U.S. economic data and amid worries about the U.S.’s fiscal outlook. The index fell 41 points, or 1.5%, to 2,629, and is now down 0.9% for the year. The Dow fell as much as 166 points and was lately down 139 points, or 1.2%, to 11,724. It’s still up 1.4% for the year. The S&P 500 was down 16 points, or 1.3%, to 1,238. It shed yearly gains on Tuesday and is down 1.6% for the year.
Extending its longest losing streak in more than a year … The NASDAQ is again … DOWN -8.96 (-0.34%) to 2,660.28. The Dow is also … DOWN -89.42 (0.75%) to 11,777.20.
The RegMed universe’s investors gut reaction is/was to see the glass as half-empty; an attitude that could linger, given the situation. Now, the 50-day line is under the 100-day average, telling us the market’s intermediate-term undertow had already shifted for the worst — even if it didn’t feel like it had…
The stock market has made many moves last quarter, this quarter, this month, this day and seems to … reverse each time/one … a 100-point drop in February-March; a 120-point rise after that; a 110-point decline in May-June; a 95-point rally after that; and now we are currently 95 points from the July highs. Each of these quickly throws the market from overbought to oversold, and vice versa.
This can be frustrating behavior – although in most cases we have been able to detect the reversal points via overbought or oversold conditions. Thus, the oversold conditions that have built up now: 1) breadth (especially in the “stocks only” data); 2) a potential spike peak in $VIX; and 3) all the $VIX futures trading at a discount, are signs that a potential reversal bottom is once again at hand. You can also add in the fact that the total put-call ratio will eventually give a buy signal in the relatively short term as well.
Unfortunately, anticipating an oversold condition as a buy signal can be very costly because the market can stay oversold for long periods of time. So wait for the buy signals (the easiest of which to spot will be the $VIX reversal) before committing new trading capital on the long side.
I feel it coming … when… was the last time my bellweathers … Cytori (CYTX) was $3.96; Neostem (AMEX: NBS) is different … post an acquisition and an offering so it is re-gaining its “legs” at $0.755 – my idea of upward mobility; Geron (GERN) at $3.38 ($192.2M in cash, so what, if an increasse is expected in R&D because of advancing trials). BioTime (AMEX;BTX) always seems to bounce back as does Osiris (OSIR) and Opexa (OPEXA). Re, Pluristem (PSTI) and Aastrom (ASTM), I have my DOUBTS on their appreciation curves, I believe they will continue to be volitile but flat line as ones need for cash to further trials (ASTM) hits the stock pricing. They remind me of the old novel ..”A Tale of Two Cities” but, more to come on that issue.
The market seems to have stopped its bleeding there on Wednesday though … we’re likely to get a so-called ‘dead cat’ bounce simply because anything will bounce if dropped from high enough – like the nosedives our universe have experiences.
Regenerative medicine/stem cell universe shares are “being reappraised as the pillars of support HAVE fallen as investors seek new and suck value out of current holdings” on 8/3/11 … but, let the dust settle first, and then when the market starts to trend … as selling hysteria ends and opens the door … to and for BUY ING … partial positions … DING … DONG … GO LONG …!
Who is UP … BioMimetic (BMTI), BioTime (AMEX: BTX), Cytori (CYTX), Fibrocell (FCSC.OB), Geron (GERN), ImmunoCellular (IMUC.OB), Opexa (OPXA), Neuralstem (AMEX: CUR), ThermoGenesis (KOOL) are up …
What’s new in the regenerative medicine/stem cell market … An OPPURTUNITY to BUY, patent issuance and DOD contract
Neuralstem (AMEX: CUR) awarded DOD Contract for Brain Cancer Research: The research contract, entitled “Research to Treat Cancerous Brain Tumors with Neural Stem Cells,” will be carried out in collaboration with Principal Investigator John Zhang, MD, PhD, Professor of Neurosurgery, Loma Linda University, in Loma Linda, CA. The contract award is $1.6M for the 1st year of the project, of which CUR will receive $625,000; The DOD has 3 one-year options to continue the program after the first year based upon milestones; The goal of the program is to have a therapeutic product for the treatment of cancerous brain tumors ready to submit to the FDA by the end of the 4th year (2015). The bottom line, current cancer therapies do not work on the majority of brain tumors. The prognosis for patients with a brain tumor such as glioblastoma is about 12 months of life. CUR will be engineering cells to attack brain cancer in 3 ways: 1st, by expressing an antibody known to suppress tumor growth; 2nd, by expressing an enzyme that selectively kills tumor cells; and 3rd by expressing an anti-angiogenic protein that will starve the tumors by preventing the formation of the blood vessels that feed them. Neural stem cells are known to migrate to tumors and thus should be particularly well suited to the task. Because CUR is transplanting the cells directly into the brain, these drugs can be delivered directly into the brain without exposing a patient’s peripheral organs to the powerful doses needed to kill the cancer cells.
ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (IMUC.OB) issued New Patent: OTCBB: IMUC was issued a patent in France and the UK relating to the treatment and detection of multiple myeloma and ovarian cancer. Patent No# 1,204,683 (#683), entitled “Ovarian cancer cells and myeloma cell surface glycoproteins, antibodies” covers aspects of the IMUC.OB’s monoclonal antibody ICT-69, which targets human multiple myeloma and ovarian cancer cells. The bottom line, ICT-69 is already covered in the US and this patent expands coverage of issued patent portfolio to 9. Strengthening patent portfolio to support the development platforms and enhance their ability to license or partner these platforms.
First Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell (iPSC) Patent Approved by the EPO: The European Patent Office (EPO) will grant on 8/3/11, an iPSC patent to Professor Shinya Yamanaka (Kyoto University). This European (EP) patent (No# EP06834636) will add to the iPSC patent portfolio currently owned by the Kyoto University, which includes 3 Japanese patents (JP4183742, JP4411362, and JP4411363) and 1 British patent (GB2450603) recently transferred from iPierian. The bottom line, Similar to the Japanese and British patents, the EP patent to be granted covers a technique for using at least 3 groups of genes—Oct, Klf and Myc/Sox—optionally in the presence of basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) to reprogram somatic cells into iPSCs. While the Japanese and British patents claim the “methods” of reprogramming somatic cells, the EP patent will claim “a nuclear reprogramming factor” requiring the Oct, Klf, and Myc gene families and/or a cytokine such as bFGF. It has been reported that the Kyoto University will register the approved EP patent in each of the 17 member countries of the European Patent Convention, including Britain, Germany, and France. Opposition of Yamanaka’s EP patent can be filed by 5/3/12.
