Regenerative Medicine Weekly Trend Line

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Regenerative Medicine Weekly Trend Line

July 24th, 2011 Henry McCusker Leave a comment Go to comments

Shares of regenerative medicine stem cell companies are suffering from the summer doldrums and lack of attention

At the end of the week (7/8/11), the NASDAQ was up +24.40 (+0.86%) to 2858.83. The Dow was DOWN -43.25 (-0.34) to 12,681.16.

Shares are still “SLOWLY – COMING BACK FROM BRINK” from lows of the past weeks and month. Again, expect … LITTLE news … during these summer months from the universe or economic maelstroms to “stem” overall risk sentiment. (Last week close, 7/22/11 = LW)

Advancers (8):

Advanced Cell Technology (OTC: ACTC) up +$0.008 (+4.30%) to $0.194 (LW $0.185);
Athersys (ATHX) up +$0.04 (+1.48%) to $2.85 (LW $2.84):
Geron (GERN) up +0.07 (+1.71%) to $4.16 (LW $3.99);
ImmunoCellar Therapeutics (IMUC) up +$0.07 (+3.21%) to $2.25 (LW $1.90);
International Stem Cell (ISCOE.OB) up +$0.02 (2.30%) to $0.89 (LW $0.99).
NeoStem (AMEX: NBS) up +$0.03 (+2.94%) to $1.05 <post offering> (LW $1.53);
StemCells (STEM) up $0.08 (+2.12%) to $3.85 <1 to 10 reverse > (LW $6.08); and
ThermoGenesis (KOOL) up +$0.01 (+0.48%) to $2.09 (LW $2.05).

Decliners (11):

BioHeart (BHRT.OB) down -$0.035 (-14.58%) to $0.205 (LW:$0.09);
BioMimetic (BMTI) down -$0.04 (-0.90%) to $4.38 (LW $4.52);
BioTime (AMEX: BTX) down -$0.45 (-7.89%) to $5.25 (LW $5.26);
Brainstorm (BCLI.OB) down -$0.015 (-2.80%) to $0.52 (LW $0.43);
Cytori (CYTX) down -0.18 (-3.67%) to $4.72 (LW $4.94);
Fibrocell Sciences (OTC: FCSC) down -$0.011 (-1.60%) to $0.678 (LW:$0.71 );
Osiris (OSIR) down -$0.06 (-0.76%) to $7.80 (LW $7.98);
Neuralstem (AMEX:CUR) down $0.04 (-2.82%) to $1.38 (LW $1.37);
Opexa (OPXA) down -$0.06 (-4.05%) to $1.42 (LW $1.54);
Pluristem (PSTI) down -0.08 (-2.35%) to $3.33 (LW $3.33);
ReNeuron Group (RENE.L) down -$0.30 (6.00%) to $4.70 (LW $5.00).

Flat (2):

Aastrom (ASTM) flat at $2.75 (LW $2.73);
Tengion (TNGN) flat at $1.38 (LW $1.16).

The Bottom Line: Declining stocks versus advancers (11 versus 8 as compared to last week’s 6 versus 14 compared to 11 versus 6 the previous week highlights diminished TRUST issues in indicators.

This weeks biggest winners (that is a misnomer) of the regenerative medicine universe close were StemCells (STEM) up $0.08 (+2.12%) to $3.85 <1 to 10 reverse >; Geron (GERN) up +0.07 (+1.71%) to $4.16; ImmunoCellar Therapeutics (IMUC) up +$0.07 (+3.21%) to $2.25 and NeoStem (AMEX: NBS) up +$0.03 (+2.94%) to $1.05 <post unit $1.20 priced offering>.

Weekly Highlights:

Referenced announcements: worth reviewing …

This Week’s Treatise:

How do you spell … RELIEF … The only real four-letter word in the RegMed universe is … fear. When it’s reduced, the market’s tendency is to go higher, maybe fitfully … maybe NOT in a straight line, but up.

Global markets rallied last week, up about 2%. More gains seem likely for the next few months. Though August and September are typically tough months for stocks, they might not be so scary this year, assuming the US government eventually reaches an agreement on its own debt- and deficit-reduction program … which we’re assuming it will.

POLITICIANS (no respect there) can’t be THAT STUPID! While the bailout isn’t a permanent solution, it’s a step in the right direction, and it’s constructive enough that there won’t be a shock to the financial system, assuming it is implemented successfully.

Relieved by progress made to contain the government debt crisis, the flip-flopping US stock market rallied last week to move within 1.4% of a fresh 2011 high …

Our “universe” is “in shape” but, shaky in reference to share pricing … although another …unit financing was fulfilled (AMEX: NBS) and $1.20 was not a bad price, in this market!

Cash levels are what they are … but, at all-time highs due to structured access plans, unit financings and credit lines as loss per share (LPS) could be diminishing; unless a company is about to initiate clinical trials.

The only thing that can … take down … OUR universe down is … fear. My biggest concern is the slowness of regulatory response which is NOT always the regulators FAULT – but, management’s ability to DEFINE their cell based processes and methods of action.

RegenMed/Stem cell stocks … will continue to be volatile in this market … but, investors should feel the “re-appreciation” of their shares. It will be a highly lucrative sector; as Pharma deconstructs their R&D operations … but the regulatory process continues to be the roadblock … the FDA is the valuators and the patent process is a speed-bump.

My bellwethers are still – (Ranked in order): NeoStem (AMEX: NBS), Cytori (CYTX), ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (IMUC.OB) – seems to always bounce back with Osiris (OSIR) … Athersys (ATHX) and BioTime (AMEX: BTX) … following.

Most seasoned investors are familiar with the OLD company/VOLITILE stock phenomenon, in which clinical results show past and strong … indicators but become invisible by promised regulatory filings that … never seem to appear … To me … to be “appreciated” by the market … managements MUST and NEED … be more transparent. Investor trust is an important FACTOR … in management’s attitude and communication … unforeseen issues, mistakes (can be forgiven) however, over-confidence and down-right arrogance … shapes … perception which usually becomes the reality of a shares pricing. Entrenched managements and BODs need to be … enlivened.

One last postscript … Companies must be more strategic than tactical and OPEN in achieving their GOALS because they are also … OUR goals as investors. Positioning their development status must be competitively modeled to articulate differences and comparisons … in therapies and approach.

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