Scimitar Equity Blog

Aastrom’s (NASDAQ:ASTMD) ticker symbol will revert back (dropping the “D” designation) to ASTM as of 3/18/10.  ASTM’s reverse stock split which became effective (2/18/10), has been trading on a post-split basis under the temporary trading symbol “ASTMD” for approximately 20 trading days.

ASTM recently reported the final patient treatment in the ongoing U.S. Phase 2 surgical clinical trial designated IMPACT-DCM. Treated at Emory University Hospital Midtown in Atlanta, GA, this patient received direct injections of Aastrom’s tissue repair cells for the treatment of dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), a severe form of congestive heart failure in which the heart becomes weakened and enlarged and cannot pump blood efficiently. With the treatment of the final patient in this trial, ASTM is positioned to report 6 month interim data on all enrolled patients later this year.

ASTM also previously reported results from interim analysis of their multi-center, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled U.S. Phase 2b clinical trial designated RESTORE-CLI.  According to the interim analysis the safety profile was similar between the treatment and placebo arms. Based on a composite efficacy endpoint assessing time to treatment failure (including major amputations, wound size and gangrene), Aastrom’s autologous vascular repair cells (VRCs) were effective. Forty-six critical limb ischemia (CLI) patients who had at least 6 month follow up, including 33 patients with 12-month follow up.

• ASTM shares have appreciated from $1.52 to the current $1.61 with a market cap of $45.40 M with moderate volume. Without a definitive model, current valuation implies a valuation of $4.25 to $4.50 given the current number of shares of 28.26 M and a fully diluted shares outstanding of 39.012 M to project a preliminary fair value estimate of $6.00 (+) which is significantly above its stocks current price and the trading range of $1.36 -$4.96,
• ASTMD believes the results provide a strong signal of the potential efficacy and safety of their autologous cell therapy in patients with Critical Limb Ischemia (CLI). ASTMD can now move ahead with plans to advance this program into Phase 3 clinical testing.
• Remember, CLI is typically identified as the end stage of peripheral arterial disease. People with CLI face a high risk of amputation and in some cases death. Approximately 1 M patients in the U.S. suffer from CLI. The disease results in more than 160,000 amputations each year.
• I still consider ASTM a BUY and believe that it offers upside in the near-term as the market remains challenging based on market volatility, perceptions and sentiment.